Static Zombie

Karma Chameleon

Love the double-elimination Survivor episodes, especially when they're relatively late in an unstable game and it's not just a rote majority vs. minority double whammy.  Spoilers and lots of discussion after the jump.

Rupert has an angel on his shoulder.  He got lucky three times.  First, he was massively lucky that Sandra found the idol instead of Russell, Parvati, Danielle, Jerri, or Candace.  Had any of the other Villains found the idol, Rupert was a dead duck.  But not only did the right Villain find it, Rupert took matters into his own hands and made other people think he had the idol.  He underplayed it beautifully at camp, at least as far as we saw-- no bragging, just a conspicuous pocket bulge that he trusted would get noticed without seeming to want to be.  And Russell took the bait hook, line, and sinker.

Candice had it coming.  Her decision to flip last week made absolutely no sense.  With Sandra on their side, the Heroes had the numbers.  If they'd just voted out Parvati, the Heroes would have been tied 4-4, and since Sandra still wanted to get rid of Russell, they'd effectively be 5-3.  By flipping, she proved herself untrustworthy and burned her Heroes bridges.  I'm not sure how she expected to win once she got to the jury-- if all the Heroes got voted off, none would have voted for her.  The Heroes were the underdogs.  Their resolve to stick together was everything they had.  When Candice turned her back on that, she walked away from a million dollars.

Sandra, on the other hand, can flip with impunity.  First, it's what she does.  She won Pearl Islands by being a mercenary, joining no alliances but selling her vote each Tribal Council to whichever faction pledged to write anyone's name but hers.  Second, she's a Villain, and the lowest one on the totem pole (though she seems to have convinced the rest of the Villains, who didn't trust her before the merge, that she's loyal).  Nobody would fault her for flipping.  "I'm a scorpion.  It's what I do."

Rupert's stroke of luck the second time was lasting long enough to benefit from Russell's paranoia.  I feel a little bad for Danielle.  She didn't really make any wrong moves or mistakes before that Tribal Council.  Getting voted out like that must have been devastating.  But the crazy thing is, Russell wasn't wrong.  She had a tighter alliance with Parvati than he did.  Sooner or later-- unless they believed nobody on the jury would vote for him-- they may well have cut him loose.  It amazes me that people don't split up tight pairs-- clear and present dangers-- more often.

But the most shocking thing about the second Tribal Council wasn't that Danielle went home.  It's who voted for her.  If you watched the credits you saw that Jerri, obviously swayed by the Tribal discussion, voted for Danielle, while Sandra voted for Rupert!  On the one hand, that's perfectly in line with Sandra's strategy-- keep her head low, don't do anything to get other people mad at her, she doesn't care who goes home as long as it isn't her.  But I'm surprised she didn't throw in with Russell after learning how the vote might split.  Had Jerri not been swayed, Rupert would have gone home and Sandra would really have no other port in the eventual storm.  With Danielle gone, Sandra could flip to the Heroes and make it 3-3, and use her idol to oust Russell.

So Sandra also got lucky, because the way things worked out couldn't be better for her.  Parvati and Jerri believe her to be loyal.  Rupert and Colby will still accept her vote if they need it.  Russell isn't gunning for her.  And best of all, nobody knows she has the idol.

I've never been a big fan of Parvati, but let me say this-- she has played a very, very smart game this season.  Take tonight, for example.  She saw right through Russell's ploy without a second thought.  She's no Amanda, wishy-washing herself through the game.  Parvati is confident.  She trusts her instincts, and her instincts have been serving her well.  She also knows when to shut the hell up.  She made herself as small and invisible as possible during Tribal Council, pulling her arms close to her side and clasping her hands in her lap, legs pointing away from Danielle.  When the fur started to fly, she saw how Danielle was digging her own grave and she was very careful not to stumble into it too.  She knew that coming to Danielle's defense would only have hurt Danielle, and the best way to save her was to remain aloof and stay out of it.  It was the right play, but the damage was done.

I think Russell's gone next.  After what just happened, Parvati and Jerri won't trust him.  Sandra wants him gone.  Rupert doesn't trust him despite what the previews want us to believe.  If he doesn't win immunity, his game is over.  That leaves Jerri and Parvati, Rupert and Colby, and little old Sandra in the middle able to do what she does best-- sell her vote to the highest bidder.  If we assume a final three, who would you go with in her shoes?  The jury would have Coach, Courtney, Danielle, and Russell from the Villains; J.T., Amanda, and Candice from the Heroes.  Do you add 2 more Villains to the jury and hope they all vote for you as the last Villain standing?  Do you add two more Heroes and hope they pick you as the least objectionable Villain?

Sandra could beat Jerri but I think if Parvati makes it to the finals, Parvati wins another million (and this time, deservedly so).  Rupert and Colby have done so little in the game, it's hard to see how any of the Villains vote for them.  J.T. and Amanda probably stay true to the Heroes, but Candice has already shown she has no loyalty there.  If it does play out this way-- with Russell going home next, and Sandra having to pick a side-- I think her best odds come by siding with the Heroes.

From this week's vantage point, then, I'm picking Sandra as the Sole Survivor.

Posted by Peter at May 6, 2010 10:16 PM | TrackBack